The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●Reapportionment: On Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its population estimates for 2017 for every state, detailing how many residents each state has gained or lost since the 2010 census. The firm Election Data Services has used these estimates to project how many congressional seats each state might gain or lose in the 2020 round of reapportionment, which assigns each state its share of the House's 435 districts based on its population.
Campaign ActionAs shown in this map, approximately 14 to 17 states might see their number of districts change after the 2020 census. The precise numbers vary because EDS offers two different projections, one based on longer-term population trends from 2010 through 2017 and the other based on the much shorter-term trend from just 2016 to 2017.
The 2020 census and subsequent reapportionment will thus set the stage for congressional redistricting. However, it's difficult to predict with much accuracy what the partisan impact of these changes will be, because we don't yet know which party (if any) will control the redistricting process in many states.
The 2018 gubernatorial elections and legislative contests over the next three years will be critical for determining the partisan control over the process after 2020, and two major upcoming Supreme Court cases could place judicial limits on partisan gerrymandering. One thing we do know, however, is that much of the population growth in Sun Belt states like Texas comes from black, Latino, and Asian-American residents, which could benefit Democrats in those states.
Reapportionment will also determine how many Electoral College votes each state receives, since each state gets electoral votes equivalent to the number of House seats it has plus two for its Senate delegation. Adjusting the 2016 Electoral College outcome based on the above projections, Donald Trump would have gained two to three electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton would have lost two to three, not nearly enough to affect the outcome.
Interestingly, the largely Midwestern and Northeastern states that are projected to lose seats almost all trended Republican in 2016, while the mostly Sun Belt states forecast to gain seats almost all trended Democratic. These trends could benefit Democrats in the long term if they can start winning regularly in places like Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, even if Republicans shift toward a greater reliance on the Rust Belt.