•NH-Sen, Gov: Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan isn't expected to decide if she'll challenge Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte until after the legislative session ends around July 1. It was conventional wisdom a few months ago that Hassan, a top DSCC recruit, would leave the relatively weak governorship to face Ayotte. But WMUR's John DiStaso reports that Granite State Democrats are getting pessimistic that she'll run after all.
It's going to be at least another few weeks before we know what the governor will do, but DiStaso says that Rep. Annie Kuster and ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter are being talked about as backup options. However, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas is also receiving encouragement. DiStaso writes that Pappas is resisting so far, but there will probably be renewed pressure on him if Hassan declines a Senate bid.
Until Hassan makes her intentions clear, national Democrats are going to do whatever they can to entice her to jump in, and it's not hard to see why. A recent PPP survey showed Hassan narrowly ahead of Ayotte 46-45, while Kuster trailed 49-38. (Shea-Porter and Pappas weren't tested). Meanwhile, the GOP is trying to deter Hassan. An outside group launched a $1 million ad buy against her to give the governor a taste of what a nasty Senate race would look like.
If Hassan decided to stay put and seek re-election, there's little question that she'd be heavily favored. However, that's not going to be much of a silver lining for Team Blue, who know that this seat could decide which party holds the Senate. Ayotte isn't incredibly popular and New Hampshire is swingy enough that another Democrat can win next year with a good political climate, but it'll be a lot harder without Hassan.