Leading Off:
●AZ-01: On behalf of the DCCC, Global Strategies Group is out with a poll giving Democrat Tom O'Halleran a 45-38 lead over Republican Paul Babeu. This sample has Hillary Clinton leading 46-43 in this open northern Arizona seat. Romney carried the district 50-48 and polls consistently show Donald Trump doing worse in Arizona, so the presidential result is plausible. 2012 Democratic Senate nominee Richard Carmona also won this seat 49-46 while he was losing statewide 49-46, so Clinton could very well take this district even if she doesn't carry Arizona.
An unreleased GSG poll from August also showed O'Halleran leading by 7 points (the actual toplines were not included in the memo). However, the poll says that while Babeu consolidated Republican voters in the ensuing month, he lost ground with independents. This is the first poll we've seen here, and we'll see if Babeu or his allies respond with their own numbers.
But interestingly, it doesn't appear that GOP outside groups have reserved any airtime in this seat. According to our House reservations chart, DCCC and House Majority PAC have reserved a total of almost $3 million here, but the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund don't seem to have booked a dime. In mid-August, O'Halleran held a $472,000 to $116,000 cash-on-hand lead, so it's even more notable that Team Red seems to be leaving Babeu to fend for himself right now. Early voting, which is very popular in Arizona, begins Oct. 12, so the clock is ticking.
It's very possible that Team Red has just decided that Babeu is not a good investment. As we've noted before, Babeu has a long list of scandals next to his name. Most seriously, a home video emerged a few months ago showing Babeu bragging about the abusive "discipline" he dished out to students at a school for at-risk youth he once ran in Massachusetts—after Babeu had long insisted he knew nothing about the mistreatment. The DCCC began airing ads against Babeu on this awful story in early September, while national Republicans have yet to adequately respond. We'll see if Team Red gets involved here, but with early voting starting soon, they really can't procrastinate much longer if they actually want to aid Babeu.