Leading Off:
●WI-Sen: While the Wisconsin Senate race hadn't attracted much outside spending all cycle long, that's changing in the final days of the race. On Friday, the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC announced that they were spending $2 million to help Russ Feingold, who has consistently led Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in the polls, albeit by varying—and lately, narrower—margins. In response, the pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund said on Monday that they were also committing $2 million to this contest.
Those totals are small compared to what each group has spent in other Senate races, but with just a week left and several tight races in other states, they're far from nothing. Only one poll has ever shown Johnson ahead, but a few surveys, including two recent GOP polls, have found Feingold with just 2- or 3-point leads. The new spending seems like an indication that, even if Feingold is still ahead, he's not nearly as strong as he once looked.
Other groups are also descending on Wisconsin, though not all are directly playing in the Senate race. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign hadn't aired any ads in the state in the general election, but they announced a "six-figure" buy on Friday. Clinton's state director said that she was hoping to help Feingold and other Democrats downballot. Given how relatively small this buy is for a presidential campaign, it's likely that Clinton's team is not seriously worried about losing the state's 10 electoral votes and are in fact just trying to boost their margin of victory and sweep a few extra Democrats to victory. However, Clinton's allied super PAC, Priorities USA, may be expending more resources here. Priorities is also spending in Wisconsin for the first time in the general election, though exactly how much is unclear; all we know is that they're deploying a total of $6 million in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin combined.
On the GOP side, Johnson has a well-funded super PAC called the Reform America Fund set up to aid him, and it, too, just got a boost, in the form of a $4 million donation from wealthy GOP donor Diane Hendricks. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is chipping in, too, with a spot attacking Feingold for voting for Obamacare; the Chamber's FEC filing shows they've spent $600,000.
Other conservative groups are joining the fray, too. The NRA is also up with an ad, though they only appear to be putting $116,000 behind it so far. And another pro-Johnson super PAC, Let America Work Again, also seems to be putting just $112,000 behind their new commercial, which literally features a steaming pile of cow manure. By contrast, the Humane Society Legislative Fund's new ad campaign in support of Feingold is for $400,000, and it does not feature a steaming pile of cow manure.
Even taken together, these sums don't suggest an all-out GOP assault on Feingold, or a desperate last-minute effort by Democrats to save his chances. Most likely, Republicans, who are otherwise facing a very tough map, think they have a puncher's chance here, while Democrats are simply putting up their dukes so that the GOP can't land a sneaky knockout blow.